Mog Bonanza : FFXI General Discussions

(This is not a discussion as such, it is a statement of mathematical truth, so don't bother arguing. Treat as a submission if you're really bored.)

Should you play? Probably, yes.

I've assumed 0-9 here, if it's 1-9 your winnings go up.

Expected Winnings = Sum of (Reward * Number of possibles for that reward) / Number of possible numbers.
= (100M + 10M*10 + 1M*100 + 100K*1000) / (100000)
= 4000
At a cost of 1000, that's 3000 profit.

The non-monetary prizes can all be either disregarded, or valued higher than the gil, so the above is actually a minimum return. If you think an Emp Pin is worth a trillion, then obviously your expected profit increases somewhat.

If you think you can increase your gil by a factor greater than 4 over the 2 months, don't play. If you can't do that, play!